The Week Ahead: Trump Speech Before Congress, Q4 GDP, Consumer Confidence

Investors will have a busy week coming up in the middle of corporate earnings season as attention shifts to the substance of President Trump’s speech before a joint session of Congress on Tuesday to gain more insight about his new plans to introduce tax reform and address healthcare.

U.S. stock indexes are sitting at record highs and have been in full speed rally mode since Donald Trump won the 2016 presidential election in November on the expectation that his pro-growth platform of lowering taxes, and reducing regulations will help the U.S. economy to grow.

This week investors will be paying close attention to the 2nd estimate of 2016 Q4 U.S. GDP for signs about the level of growth in the U.S. economy on Tuesday along with Consumer Confidence for February and absorb a wide list of other economic data points such as January Durable Orders and Pending Homes sales on Monday, an inflation report on Wednesday with PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and Construction Spending for January.

The February jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics won’t be released until next Friday March 10th and will give economists a last minute glimpse about the health of the U.S. jobs market before Committee members at the U.S. Federal Reserve convene for their next monetary policy meeting from March 14-15th to determine whether the U.S. economy is ready for another interest rate hike.

The March Fed meeting includes a press conference from Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen and updates with economic projections.

Based on the latest reading from CME’s Fed Watch tool, the probability of a .25 basis point interest rate hike with the federal funds rising to .75- 1.00 percent stands at just 26.6 percent.

Full U.S. Economic Calendar

Monday- Durable Orders (January), Pending Home Sales (January)

Tuesday- 2nd estimate of Q4 U.S. GDP, Chicago PMI (February), Consumer Confidence (February), Advance International Trade in Goods (Jan.), Advance Wholesale Inventories (Jan.)

Wednesday- MBA Mortgage Applications Index, PCE inflation (Jan.), Construction Spending (January), ISM index (Feb.), Crude Inventories, Auto/Truck Sales (February), Fed’s Beige Book (March).

Thursday- Initial and Continuing Job Claims, Challenger Job Cuts (Feb.), Natural Gas Inventories

Friday- ISM Services (Feb.)

Written By:

Johnathan Schweitzer




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