Following Friday’s less than stellar August non-farm payroll report, investors will shift gears this week and pay attention to more economic data to gain more clarity about the health of the U.S. economy and the likelihood of an interest rate hike during the Fed’s next policy meeting on September 21st.
On Friday the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the U.S. economy created 151,000 non-farm payroll jobs in August, below the 180,000 consensus estimate from briefing.com.
U.S. equities rose on Friday after the release of the non-farm payroll report as the market bet that the lower headline jobs number of 151,000 jobs added in August could led policymakers at the Fed to refrain from raising interest rates during their next policy meeting on September 21st.
According to the CME’s Fed Watcher, the current probability for an interest rate hike of just a 0.25 basis point hike to 0.50-0.75 during the Fed’s next meeting on September 21st is currently standing at 21.0 percent, down from 24.0 percent on Thursday.
Monday is Labor Day in the U.S. and all equity markets in the U.S. will be closed in observance of the holiday.
The U.S. economic calendar is light this week and will largely focus around a new ISM service report for August released on Tuesday which is expected to weaken from July.
Economists from briefing.com have a consensus forecast of 54.7 in August, below the 55.5 in July and 56.5 in June.
U.S. Markit PMI services will be reported as well on Tuesday.
U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams will give a speech on Tuesday in Reno, Nevada.
On Wednesday Apple will hold a keynote event in San Francisco, California that is expected to include the unveiling of their newest iPhone 7 along with a new Apple Watch.
The Fed’s Beige Book for September will also be released on Wednesday.
On Thursday the European Central Bank (ECB) will hold their policy meeting and ECB President Mario Draghi will conduct a press conference after the meeting.
Expectations are rising for more monetary policy actions from the ECB coupled with lowered ECB macroeconomic forecasts.
Consumer credit (U.S.) for July will be released on Thursday and wholesale inventories for July will come into focus on Friday.
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosen will give a speech in Massachusetts on Friday.
* Before Wednesday I am hoping to write in greater detail about expectations of the Apple keynote event and the iPhone 7. Lately, I have not focused on tech in my reporting and writing. If I discover stronger interest from my audience (you can send me an e-mail), I will spend more time writing about tech.
The majority of my writing over the past several weeks has focused on the U.S. election season, Brexit, political writing about the U.S./Europe, and finance/economics.